Statistical testing strategies for assessing treatment efficacy and marker accuracy in phase III trials

When a candidate predictive marker is available, but evidence on its predictive ability is not sufficiently reliable, all‐comers trials with marker stratification are frequently conducted. We propose a framework for planning and evaluating prospective testing strategies in confirmatory, phase III marker‐stratified clinical trials based on a natural assumption on heterogeneity of treatment effects across marker‐defined subpopulations, where weak rather than strong control is permitted for multiple population tests. For phase III marker‐stratified trials, it is expected that treatment efficacy is established in a particular patient population, possibly in a marker‐defined subpopulation, and that the marker accuracy is assessed when the marker is used to restrict the indication or labelling of the treatment to a marker‐based subpopulation, ie, assessment of the clinical validity of the marker. In this paper, we develop statistical testing strategies based on criteria that are explicitly designated to the marker assessment, including those examining treatment effects in marker‐negative patients. As existing and developed statistical testing strategies can assert treatment efficacy for either the overall patient population or the marker‐positive subpopulation, we also develop criteria for evaluating the operating characteristics of the statistical testing strategies based on the probabilities of asserting treatment efficacy across marker subpopulations. Numerical evaluations to compare the statistical testing strategies based on the developed criteria are provided.     

Explicit analytical solutions for ARL of CUSUM chart for a long-memory SARFIMA model

This paper aims to derive explicit analytical solutions for Average Run Length (ARL) of CUSUM chart for the SARFIMA(P,D,Q)_S process with exponential white noise. Measurement of performance was done with the ARL in terms of percentage error and CPU time. The results obtained from the explicit formulas were compared focusing on the performance using the numerical integral equation (NIE) method. Both methods had similarly excellent agreement with the percentage error at less than 0.25%. Meanwhile, the explicit formulas consumed less CPU time than the NIE method. It is clear that the explicit formulas are a good alternative in real applications.     

论王国维的“本色”观——基于王国维对元曲的评价

王国维用“意境”“境界”等概念建构起自己的美学体系。他认为作为抒情文学的词作必须有作者的真情实感蕴藏于内，“真情”是“境界”说的重要组成部分。出于对“真情”的看重，王国维着力于对元剧的研究，从戏剧艺术的角度，他对元剧十分鄙视，但从文辞的角度，他对元剧十分欣赏。王国维称元曲为“活文学”，与元曲作者蕴于其中的“真情”有莫大关系。王国维对元曲的研究基本延续了治词的角度和观点，论曲仍以“真情”为首要标准。不同之处在于，“当行”也是他的“本色”观的组成部分，是其“本色”观比“意境”说在理论范围上更为广阔之处。相比较而言，吴梅的“本色”观亦注重“真情”，对作品的评论，他更多的是从排场角度分析、评价作品。对作品的用字，吴梅亦崇尚自然，同时又有所保留。     

Preference for realistic art predicts support for Brexit

Following the UK’s EU referendum in June 2016, there has been considerable interest from scholars in understanding the characteristics that differentiate Leave supporters from Remain supporters. Since Leave supporters score higher on conscientiousness but lower on neuroticism and openness, and given their general proclivity toward conservatism, we hypothesized that preference for realistic art would predict support for Brexit. Data on a large nationally representative sample of the British population were obtained, and preference for realistic art was measured using a four‐item binary choice test. Controlling for a range of personal characteristics, we found that respondents who preferred all four realistic paintings were 15–20 percentage points more likely to support Leave than those who preferred zero or one realistic paintings. This effect was comparable to the difference in support between those with a degree and those with no education, and was robust to controlling for the respondent’s party identity.     

Deciphering blog users: young adults’ personalities,motivations, and perceived importance of blog features

The present study examines the cyberpsychology of blog readership as well as the digital content preferences of the Millennial generation by examining the links between college students’ personality traits, motivations to read blogs, and preferred blog features. Results indicate that personality influences motivations for reading blogs, which in turn helps predict perceived importance of blog characteristics. Notably, extraversion and neuroticism were related to reading blogs for social interaction; extraversion negatively predicted use of blogs to meet identity needs; openness was related to blog reading for entertainment purposes; and conscientiousness was positively associated with information seeking via blogs. Additionally, motivations for blog readership as explanatory mechanisms for the relationships found between personality traits and perceived importance of blog features are discussed.     

Business reform outcomes: Why so different?

Post-crisis policy making increasingly focuses on doing business reforms. We argue that the effects of those reforms will be different across countries. To understand the reasons for the reform outcome divergence, we advance a novel firm-size distribution (FSDs) argument. At the center of the argument is the fact that FSDs are different across countries and stable over time. Then, if a given doing business reform induces firms of different size to grow differently, this will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries. To advance the argument, we set up a tractable general equilibrium (GE) model and study how firms of different size grow after a doing business reform. The model predicts that larger firms will grow faster than smaller firms after the reform. The model predictions are tested on the Enterprise Surveys (ES) data, merged with the Doing Business indicators. We confirm that firms of different size grow differently after a Doing Business reform. Thus, based on the notable differences of firm size distributions across countries, identical reforms to start, operate and close a business will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries.     

Role of Leaders as Agents of Negotiation for Counterbalancing Cultural Dissonance in the Middle East and North Africa Region

This study provides a unique perspective in the field of cross-cultural management by exploring the relationship between “cultural dissonance”—the gap between cultural values and actual practice—and effective leadership attributes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Incorporating cultural dissonance into implicit leadership theory, the study uses measurements of dissonance on nine cultural dimensions to identify particular leadership preferences in seven MENA countries. The overall findings suggest that societies prefer leaders who counterbalance cultural dissonance by allowing space for negotiations by members of society to reduce disparities between cultural values—“the way things should be”—and actual practices—“the way things are.” The greater the disparity between cultural values and practices, the greater the citizens' desire that leaders act as agents of change by creating space for negotiation.     

A qualitative study on participants’ perceptions of child development accounts in Korea

ABSTRACT

In 2007, Korea implemented Child Development Accounts (CDAs) for institutionalised children in child welfare systems. Since then, the target group and a matching cap of CDAs in Korea have evolved. The target group expanded to include poor children receiving welfare, whereas the matching cap increased from KRW 30,000 (US$26.53) to KRW 40,000 (US$35.38), which is matched at a 1:1 rate. Despite the expansion, there is little empirical evidence examining the extent to which CDAs have influenced the life of participants. Using a content analysis method with a sample (N = 22), this study examines how CDAs have changed children’s mindsets, saving habits, education, future planning and sponsorship. The findings suggest that CDAs have multiple positive influences on children. This study concludes with policy implications for the inclusive and progressive development of CDAs in Korea.     

Turkey’s Twitter public diplomacy: Towards a “new” cult of personality

This study examined how Turkey uses social media as a tool for public diplomacy and how the state’s soft-power efforts have recently changed on the global stage. The researchers constructed a dataset of 2769 Twitter posts by the Turkish government’s most influential public diplomacy accounts. The analyses revealed that the focus of Turkey’s Twitter public diplomacy has become concentrated on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and is thematically focused on the political values embodied by the Turkish president. The findings suggest that public diplomacy remains to be the diplomacy of the government, not of the public, and social media is used as just another tool for propaganda, not as a means of engagement with foreign publics. Further, the findings indicate the emergence of a “new” cult of personality in public diplomacy and point out the instrumental role of social media in changing the dynamics of leader-follower relationship. The study contributes to public relations theory and practice by advancing the burgeoning public diplomacy scholarship at the intersection of social media and relational approaches.